Yesterday's picks: how the model did as its home favorites held and its Dodgers lean got buried in Philadelphia

Verdexed's model had a steady Monday on a compact Major League Baseball board, and the honest headline is that the sides it trusted at home carried the day while the one marquee lean it shared on the road came apart. The favorites the model most wanted to be right about, the New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros, all held serve. The loud blemish came at Citizens Bank Park, where a lean on the Los Angeles Dodgers ran into a five-homer buzzsaw. Netted out, July 20 graded as a solid day for the top of the board with one prominent miss that deserves to be named rather than buried.

The scorecard

The model ran a light Monday slate. Its exact daily graded hit-rate was not published on the public accuracy surface at writing, so the day is described here by the sides the model leaned on and the confirmed final scores, not a fabricated percentage.

Of the sides in play, the picture skewed favorable. The Yankees, a clear home favorite over Pittsburgh, held. The Braves, home against San Diego, held. The Astros, home against Miami, held. Each was a chalk side the model's design is built to be right on more often than not, and all three cashed. The one side that missed was the direction it shared in the night's marquee game, the Dodgers on the road in Philadelphia, and it missed decisively. Tampa Bay's win at Toronto rounded out a night in which the favorites and the leans the model liked landed more often than they fell.

That leaves the high-confidence tier doing roughly what a chalk-leaning model wants from it on a small slate. The home favorites held, and the coin flips did not all break the wrong way. A single Monday tells you very little about calibration, but a clean run through the day's firmest home sides is a good data point rather than a bad one. Anchored to Verdexed's published MLB model accuracy, which sits near 68 percent on the season, nothing about July 20 moved the running record materially in either direction.

Best call / worst miss

The best call was in the Bronx. The Yankees, the model's clearest home favorite on the board, beat the Pirates 8-5, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. was the engine. Chisholm homered in consecutive at-bats and drove in five runs, turning a matchup the model favored into a comfortable win. The model does not predict a multi-homer night from any single hitter, but the side it graded, New York to win at home, was correct, and it got there without drama.

Two more home leans landed alongside it. The Braves edged the Padres 3-2 behind six strong innings from Bryce Elder and solo homers from Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies, with Victor Mederos closing it out for his first career save. And the Astros handled the Marlins 8-5 at home. Three home favorites, three holds. That is the shape a calibrated model wants on the sides it likes most.

The worst miss was in Philadelphia, and there is no spin available for it. The model leaned to the Dodgers on the road, and the Phillies beat them 10-7. It was the Dodgers' second straight loss, and the damage came in the air, with Los Angeles surrendering five home runs and Trea Turner leading the Phillies' power surge. Starter Emmet Sheehan could not hold the line, giving up six earned runs across 5.1 innings. The model liked the wrong side in the game that headlined the board, and it lost by three in a game that felt further apart than that. It was the cleanest loss of the day, and it belongs in the ledger next to the three home holds.

What it means

One steady Monday is noise, not a trend, and the model's design is built to look exactly like this across a long summer. The firmest home sides carry the day more often than not, and the occasional lean gets buried, sometimes the loudest one on the board. Monday fit that shape. The encouraging read is that the top of the board held, which is where a chalk-leaning model most needs to be right, and it swept its three home favorites. The sober read is that the one game most casual eyes were watching, Dodgers at Phillies, is the one the model got wrong, and a five-homer night is the kind of variance that turns a defensible lean into a decisive loss. Anchored to a running MLB accuracy near 68 percent, this was a good day inside a good season, and no single slate should be read as more than that.

Responsible play

**This is a record of past model output, not betting advice.** Verdexed grades its model in public for transparency and entertainment. Past results do not predict future outcomes, nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no pick is ever a guarantee, even a strong model loses regularly.

**You must be 21+** (or the legal age in your jurisdiction) and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.

If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text **1-800-GAMBLER** (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.