The Model Card

Friday, September 25, 2026

Card frozen 11:00 AM ET, lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.

4-1on the cardEvery pick below was frozen before first pitch and graded in public.

MLB

TB@PHI

Pick TB · model 48% · market +144

HIT

MLB

NYM@WSH

Pick WSH · model 53% · market +113

HIT

MLB

LAD@SF

Pick LAD · model 80% · market -336

HIT

MLB

BAL@NYY

Pick BAL · model 50% · market +113

MISS

MLB

ATL@MIA

Pick MIA · model 52% · market +104

HIT

The model parlay

HIT

TB + WSH + LAD

+574

combined odds

20.2%

model probability

+36.5%

EV per $1

EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent, it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.

Totals leanover6.5BAL @ NYYmodel 9.4

The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes, grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.

Today's card