The Model Card
Sunday, September 20, 2026
Card frozen 11:00 AM ET, lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.
1-4on the cardEvery pick below was frozen before first pitch and graded in public.
MLB
SF@
LAD
Pick SF · model 40% · market +226
MISS
NFL
CIN@
HOU
Pick HOU · model 67% · market -148
MISS
MLB
CHC@
CIN
Pick CIN · model 48% · market +134
MISS
MLB
TOR@
TEX
Pick TOR · model 46% · market +138
HIT
MLB
PHI@
NYM
Pick NYM · model 47% · market +133
MISS
The model parlay
MISSSF + HOU + CIN
+1178
combined odds
13.0%
model probability
+65.5%
EV per $1
EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent, it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.
Totals leanover7.5MIL @ BALmodel 9.4
The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes, grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.