The Model Card

Saturday, September 19, 2026

Card frozen 11:00 AM ET, lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.

2-3on the cardEvery pick below was frozen before first pitch and graded in public.

NHL

MTL@TOR

Pick TOR · model 62% · market -105

MISS

MLB

ATL@HOU

Pick ATL · model 50% · market +113

HIT

MLB

KC@PIT

Pick PIT · model 56% · market -118

HIT

MLB

DET@CWS

Pick DET · model 50% · market +108

MISS

MLB

ATH@CLE

Pick ATH · model 41% · market +155

MISS

The model parlay

MISS

TOR + ATL + PIT

+668

combined odds

17.7%

model probability

+35.9%

EV per $1

EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent, it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.

Totals leanover7.5MIL @ BALmodel 9.8

The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes, grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.

Today's card