The Model Card
Thursday, September 17, 2026
Card frozen 11:00 AM ET, lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.
1-4on the cardEvery pick below was frozen before first pitch and graded in public.
MLB
SD@
COL
Pick COL · model 43% · market +157
MISS
MLB
LAD@
CIN
Pick CIN · model 45% · market +138
MISS
MLB
PHI@
NYM
Pick PHI · model 50% · market +109
HIT
MLB
KC@
HOU
Pick KC · model 46% · market +128
MISS
MLB
DET@
CWS
Pick DET · model 52% · market -103
MISS
The model parlay
MISSCOL + CIN + PHI
+1178
combined odds
9.8%
model probability
+24.9%
EV per $1
EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent, it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.
Totals leanover7.5BOS @ TEXmodel 8.9
The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes, grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.