The Model Card
Thursday, September 10, 2026
Card frozen 11:00 AM ET — lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.
2-2on the cardEvery pick below was frozen before first pitch and graded in public.
MLB
HOU@
PHI
Pick HOU · model 42% · market +158
HIT
MLB
COL@
NYY
Pick NYY · model 79% · market -338
HIT
MLB
PIT@
CWS
Pick CWS · model 53% · market -112
MISS
MLB
TEX@
SEA
Pick TEX · model 48% · market +108
MISS
The model parlay
MISSHOU + NYY + CWS
+533
combined odds
17.6%
model probability
+11.4%
EV per $1
EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent — it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.
Totals leanover6.5TEX @ SEAmodel 8.2
The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes — grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.