The Model Card
Friday, September 4, 2026
Card frozen 11:00 AM ET — lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.
2-3on the cardEvery pick below was frozen before first pitch and graded in public.
MLB
SF@
NYM
Pick SF · model 46% · market +157
MISS
MLB
LAA@
PIT
Pick PIT · model 70% · market -199
HIT
MLB
CHC@
MIA
Pick MIA · model 48% · market +129
MISS
MLB
WSH@
LAD
Pick WSH · model 32% · market +266
MISS
MLB
ATH@
SEA
Pick ATH · model 39% · market +184
HIT
The model parlay
MISSSF + PIT + MIA
+784
combined odds
15.4%
model probability
+36.4%
EV per $1
EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent — it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.
Totals leanover7ATH @ SEAmodel 8.9
The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes — grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly.