The Model Card
Saturday, August 22, 2026
Card frozen 11:00 AM ET — lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.
2-3on the cardEvery pick below was frozen before first pitch and graded in public.
MLB
WSH@
MIA
Pick WSH · model 44% · market +164
MISS
MLB
CIN@
AZ
Pick CIN · model 45% · market +158
HIT
MLB
ATL@
MIL
Pick ATL · model 42% · market +161
MISS
MLB
SF@
BOS
Pick SF · model 38% · market +189
MISS
MLB
TB@
BAL
Pick BAL · model 48% · market +116
HIT
The model parlay
MISSWSH + CIN + ATL
+1678
combined odds
8.2%
model probability
+46.5%
EV per $1
EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent — it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.
Totals leanover6.5TOR @ NYYmodel 8.1
The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes — grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly.