The Model Card
Friday, August 21, 2026
Card frozen 11:00 AM ET — lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.
0-5on the cardEvery pick below was frozen before first pitch and graded in public.
MLB
STL@
PHI
Pick STL · model 45% · market +194
MISS
MLB
ATH@
HOU
Pick ATH · model 47% · market +168
MISS
MLB
PIT@
LAD
Pick PIT · model 41% · market +203
MISS
MLB
NYM@
CWS
Pick NYM · model 47% · market +131
MISS
MLB
SF@
BOS
Pick SF · model 42% · market +162
MISS
The model parlay
MISSSTL + ATH + PIT
+2287
combined odds
8.7%
model probability
+107.4%
EV per $1
EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent — it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.
Totals leanover6ATL @ MILmodel 8.0
The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes — grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly.