The Model Card
Monday, August 17, 2026
Card frozen 11:00 AM ET — lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.
2-3on the cardEvery pick below was frozen before first pitch and graded in public.
MLB
MIA@
PHI
Pick MIA · model 41% · market +227
MISS
MLB
LAD@
COL
Pick LAD · model 80% · market -255
HIT
MLB
ATH@
KC
Pick ATH · model 44% · market +174
MISS
MLB
CWS@
CHC
Pick CWS · model 46% · market +150
MISS
MLB
STL@
CIN
Pick CIN · model 52% · market +111
HIT
The model parlay
MISSMIA + LAD + ATH
+1147
combined odds
14.5%
model probability
+80.5%
EV per $1
EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent — it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.
Totals leanover8SD @ NYMmodel 9.1
The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes — grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly.