The Model Card
Sunday, August 16, 2026
Card frozen 11:00 AM ET — lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.
4-1on the cardEvery pick below was frozen before first pitch and graded in public.
MLB
KC@
LAA
Pick KC · model 59% · market -108
HIT
MLB
MIL@
LAD
Pick MIL · model 43% · market +166
HIT
MLB
STL@
CHC
Pick STL · model 44% · market +162
HIT
MLB
TEX@
ATH
Pick ATH · model 50% · market +122
HIT
MLB
MIA@
CIN
Pick CIN · model 52% · market +110
MISS
The model parlay
HITKC + MIL + STL
+1242
combined odds
11.2%
model probability
+49.6%
EV per $1
EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent — it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.
Totals leanover8CWS @ DETmodel 9.3
The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes — grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly.