The Model Card
Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Card frozen 11:00 AM ET — lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.
0-5on the cardEvery pick below was frozen before first pitch and graded in public.
MLB
PHI@
STL
Pick PHI · model 69% · market -162
MISS
MLB
MIL@
SD
Pick MIL · model 63% · market -128
MISS
MLB
TEX@
LAA
Pick TEX · model 64% · market -136
MISS
MLB
TB@
ATH
Pick ATH · model 45% · market +153
MISS
MLB
CHC@
WSH
Pick WSH · model 44% · market +148
MISS
The model parlay
MISSPHI + MIL + TEX
+400
combined odds
28.1%
model probability
+40.6%
EV per $1
EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent — it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.
Totals leanover7BOS @ TORmodel 8.6
The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes — grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly.