The Model Card

Monday, August 10, 2026

Card frozen 11:00 AM ET, lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.

1-4on the cardEvery pick below was frozen before first pitch and graded in public.

MLB

KC@LAD

Pick KC · model 38% · market +260

MISS

MLB

COL@AZ

Pick COL · model 43% · market +180

MISS

MLB

NYM@ATL

Pick NYM · model 49% · market +131

HIT

MLB

HOU@SF

Pick SF · model 47% · market +137

MISS

MLB

MIL@SD

Pick MIL · model 57% · market -112

MISS

The model parlay

MISS

KC + COL + NYM

+2228

combined odds

7.9%

model probability

+84.2%

EV per $1

EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent, it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.

Totals leanover8.5NYM @ ATLmodel 9.7

The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes, grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.

Today's card