The Model Card

Thursday, August 6, 2026

Card frozen 11:00 AM ET — lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.

1-4on the cardEvery pick below was frozen before first pitch and graded in public.

MLB

TOR@CHC

Pick CHC · model 53% · market +110

HIT

MLB

MIA@ATL

Pick MIA · model 47% · market +140

MISS

MLB

ATH@CIN

Pick ATH · model 46% · market +143

MISS

MLB

CWS@BOS

Pick CWS · model 42% · market +162

MISS

MLB

SD@AZ

Pick AZ · model 55% · market -107

MISS

The model parlay

MISS

CHC + MIA + ATH

+1125

combined odds

11.4%

model probability

+39.1%

EV per $1

EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent — it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.

Totals leanover7.5PIT @ MILmodel 8.9

The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes — grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly.

Today's card