The Model Card

Wednesday, August 5, 2026

Card frozen 11:00 AM ET, lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.

1-4on the cardEvery pick below was frozen before first pitch and graded in public.

MLB

TOR@HOU

Pick TOR · model 45% · market +148

HIT

MLB

SF@TEX

Pick SF · model 43% · market +160

MISS

MLB

DET@SEA

Pick DET · model 47% · market +131

MISS

MLB

NYM@CLE

Pick CLE · model 53% · market +102

MISS

MLB

SD@AZ

Pick SD · model 54% · market -109

MISS

The model parlay

MISS

TOR + SF + DET

+1389

combined odds

9.0%

model probability

+34.6%

EV per $1

EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent, it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.

Totals leanover7PIT @ MILmodel 8.7

The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes, grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.

Today's card