The Model Card
Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Card frozen 11:00 AM ET — lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.
2-3on the cardEvery pick below was frozen before first pitch and graded in public.
MLB
TB@
COL
Pick COL · model 52% · market +126
MISS
MLB
MIN@
KC
Pick KC · model 51% · market +129
HIT
MLB
WSH@
PHI
Pick WSH · model 39% · market +225
MISS
MLB
LAD@
CHC
Pick CHC · model 42% · market +184
HIT
MLB
STL@
NYY
Pick STL · model 45% · market +155
MISS
The model parlay
MISSCOL + KC + WSH
+1582
combined odds
10.4%
model probability
+75.1%
EV per $1
EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent — it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.
Totals leanover7.5SF @ TEXmodel 9.6
The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes — grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly.