The Model Card
Monday, August 3, 2026
Card frozen 11:00 AM ET — lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.
3-2on the cardEvery pick below was frozen before first pitch and graded in public.
MLB
STL@
NYY
Pick STL · model 42% · market +176
HIT
MLB
LAD@
CHC
Pick CHC · model 52% · market +114
HIT
MLB
TB@
COL
Pick TB · model 64% · market -155
HIT
MLB
SF@
TEX
Pick TEX · model 53% · market -103
MISS
MLB
WSH@
PHI
Pick WSH · model 45% · market +132
MISS
The model parlay
HITSTL + CHC + TB
+872
combined odds
13.9%
model probability
+35.1%
EV per $1
EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent — it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.
Totals leanover8SF @ TEXmodel 9.0
The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes — grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly.