The Model Card

Friday, July 31, 2026

Card frozen 11:00 AM ET, lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.

2-3on the cardEvery pick below was frozen before first pitch and graded in public.

MLB

KC@COL

Pick KC · model 62% · market -105

MISS

MLB

MIN@SEA

Pick MIN · model 42% · market +166

HIT

MLB

STL@TOR

Pick STL · model 44% · market +158

MISS

MLB

TEX@HOU

Pick TEX · model 50% · market +110

MISS

MLB

NYY@CHC

Pick NYY · model 45% · market +136

HIT

The model parlay

MISS

KC + MIN + STL

+1240

combined odds

11.4%

model probability

+52.9%

EV per $1

EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent, it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.

Totals leanover7.5PIT @ CINmodel 9.4

The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes, grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.

Today's card