The Model Card
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Card frozen 11:00 AM ET, lines are freeze-time prices and never edited after.
1-4on the cardEvery pick below was frozen before first pitch and graded in public.
MLB
MIL@
SF
Pick MIL · model 65% · market -118
MISS
MLB
TEX@
TB
Pick TEX · model 55% · market +123
MISS
MLB
ATL@
NYM
Pick ATL · model 70% · market -150
MISS
MLB
BOS@
ATH
Pick BOS · model 68% · market -145
HIT
MLB
NYY@
CWS
Pick NYY · model 64% · market -138
MISS
The model parlay
MISSMIL + TEX + ATL
+587
combined odds
25.1%
model probability
+72.2%
EV per $1
EV assumes the model probabilities are right and legs are independent, it's the model's honest opinion of this ticket, not a promise.
Totals leanover7.5TEX @ TBmodel 8.7
The card freezes each morning before games start and never changes, grading lands here and on The Record. Research starting point, not betting advice.